Why Facebook Can More Than Triple From Here

Previously, we had written an article titled, Facebook: The Best 'Fangma' Stock To Buy Right Now, Quantitatively Speaking. We highlighted some major factors that separate Facebook Inc. (FB) from the rest and suggest you check it out. Although we performed a relative valuation for all six companies in that article, we wanted to write a follow-up to calculate the intrinsic value of Facebook. Facebook is currently undervalued using projections that are based purely on fundamental factors. ​

Here are the main points of this report:  

• Facebook is undervalued under current market conditions. 
  
• Our projections are based on fundamental factors. 
  
• Facebook is a top-quality tech stock. ​
  

Valuation

To value Facebook, we will first need to determine three things: 

• Reinvestment rate 
• Revenue-to-capital ratio 
• Incremental revenue to capital

For Facebook, the reinvestment rate will be the sum of research and development, marketing, capital expenditures, and change in net working capital, subtracted by depreciation and amortization. We subtract D&A because it is considered maintenance capex which doesn't contribute to growth.
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Next, we will calculate both the revenue-to-capital ratio and the incremental revenue-to-capital ratio. The former measures how much revenue the company can generate for each dollar invested. The latter measures the same thing except it focuses on the new revenue generated by new investments.

*This is a premium seeking alpha article, so we can’t fully post it here.*   ​ ​

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